Monday, March 23, 2009

The Best Bank Out There - Conclusion

In my previous post we discussed how to analyze the balance sheet of a financial institution. We went over some of the key metrics needed to determine the health of a given bank and researched/calculated these metrics for Wells Fargo. I've gone ahead and performed the same analysis for several other banks and (drumroll please!) here are the results (click image for full size view):



For me there were a few surprises and a few clarifications that I think are important in these results. They may look somewhat close in terms of statistics, but some information here stands out more than others:

  1. JP Morgan - This bank looks pretty strong in all categories. It isn't the best in any of them, but it performs well across the board - something I think is more important than being strong in a single area.
  2. US Bancorp - I was surprised to see the weakness associated with USB's balance sheet. A very low loan loss reserve and a relatively high Nonperforming assets ratio concerns me in that the bank hasn't adequately shielded itself from future losses and writedowns.
  3. Goldman Sachs - This perennial powerhouse seems to perform decently well. No major concerns here, but given the high valuations the market likes giving this company, I expected it to perform better.
  4. Morgan Stanley - I would probably buy this bank over Goldman Sachs at this point. It's the closest remaining competitor to Goldman and its balance sheet is pretty comperable. However, the stock is trading at a significant discount to Goldman, and I'm starting to believe not all of it is justified.
  5. Citigroup - I wanted to put Citi here because I wanted a comparison point to arguably the most troubled of banks. The biggest concern I see here is the Tangible Common Equity. However, with the recent injections of additional government capital, this numbers has probably increased somewhat. Overall, if you have the guts to ride out a roller
  6. Wells Fargo - After comparing it to the other banks, Wells still looks like it's in the upper echelon of banks. It's low nonperforming assets ratio reflects the companies principles of mainly lending to higher quality borrowers. When taken as a ratio to loan loss reserves (.42), it is much better equipped to handle further uncertainty than even JP Morgan (.49).
  7. NP Assets For GS and MS - I wasn't able to find this information for those to banks. I'm guessing this is because up until recently, they weren't retail banks and, instead, were investment banks. I might be wrong here, and, if anyone has the corrected information, please let me know.
Overall, against historical standards, all these banks look fairly healthy for most metrics. But, as we all know, historical standards may not apply here. Therefore, I would rank these banks as the following. In terms of buying, I would only really consider buying anyone with an A grade, unless you want to take on significant additional risk:

JP Morgan A
Well Fargo A-
Morgan Stanley B+
Goldman Sachs B
Citigroup C+
US Bancorp C+


Questions/Comments/Feedback?
Please don’t hesitate to let me know of any questions or comments you have about this post or any other. If you want me to write about something else investing related, do let me know!

The Standard Disclaimer:

The stuff I just wrote above is my opinion and my opinion only. Please do not take it as fact. Perform all necessary research and analysis prior to acting on anything I’ve said above. This includes consulting with a financial advisor.













1 comment:

  1. Most banks right now really STINK in terms of earnings power. I've been measuring them based on their books. One of Benjamin graham metric for investment was that the company had more liquidation value than the price/share - one form of value investment. FITB, BAC were high on my list but not anymore with now that the prices are way up. GS/MS are premium stocks, and well deserved to be. This strategy is rarely practice, even by Buffett, in a modern market since Stock value/earning power is much higher than liquidation value - so you won't find any until now.

    I agree with your list.. JPM and WFC are high on my list. But if you want to make quick money, you may risk going for BAC and other regional banks. C, I think they're in too much trouble now even if half the company make $1 pay haha.


    I was going to ask for the calculation, but actually read it and went to your previous post. I guess i had the same idea coincidentally but yours is more accurate with the environment right now.

    Great stuff... :)

    ReplyDelete