2009 Year In Review

2009 has come to an end and, thus, ends the first year of InvestingDecoded. I started this blog to help others learn about investing and try to make sense of something as complex as the stock market. I hope I've been able to make this happen. At the same time, however, InvestingDecoded has helped me learn more about investing for myself. To me, that alone has made the time worthwhile.

Now that the first year is over, it's time to look back. One of the biggest things every investor needs to do a assess his/her performance. InvestingDecoded is no exception. Let's take a look back at topics I've covered and see how the recommendations have performed.

Oil's Rollercoaster Ride

Early last year, I wrote a series of detailed posts about the oil industry. We discussed how the oil complex functioned and the price drivers. One of the big recommendations I made was a call on oil prices. When I originally wrote the post, oil was hovering around $35 a barrel. I wrote that the $35 price was artificially low and, eventually, prices would rebound. At the end of 2009, oil was trading at close to $80, slightly above my estimate of the mid-70s. If you had invested in oil when I recommended it, it would have been a fruitful investment.

The Banking Crisis

InvestingDecoded also had a series of banking related posts. Here, we peformed a detailed analysis on the balance sheet of various banks. From there, I ranked what I felt were the best banks to invest in, with Wells Fargo coming out the winner. Looking back at this prediction, it seems that I was likely somewhat off. WFC has slightly underperformed the overall industry ETF (graph below). Although I'm still convinced the bank has good days ahead of it, many of the pureplay investment banks (e.g. Goldman Sachs) have performed better.


International Telecom Getting the Job Done

One of my more direct recommendations last year was Millicom International. The emerging market cell phone company was trading in the 40's. Now trading in the mid-70s, Millicom has shown it's quality as a company and a stock. I still think the company has room to grow to the 100+/share once global growth really picks up.

Other Names

Some of the other names I discussed were companies like Ford and Citigroup. Since those recommendations were made later in the year, it's hard to assess their success. Ford, however, looks like it's doing very well. I personally have made a nice 70% return on it and have cashed out some profits. Citigroup is having some issues, but it wasn't a outright recommendation when I had discussed it. Time will tell how both these once-powerhouses come through in this recovery

2009 was one of the most interesting years to be an investor. You could have made a lot of money if you took some risks. At the same time, you could've lost a lot as well. 2010 I think will be less volatile, but it will set the tone for the next few years. I'll keep on making recommendations in 2010. Here's to all of us having some success :-)


What are your thoughts?

Questions/Comments/Feedback?
Please don’t hesitate to let me know of any questions or comments you have about this post or any other. If you want me to write about something else investing related, do let me know!

The Standard Disclaimer:

The stuff I just wrote above is my opinion and my opinion only. Please do not take it as fact. Perform all necessary research and analysis prior to acting on anything I've said above. This includes consulting with a financial advisor.